🇺🇸❗️Cable FX Macro Weekly Note: May Non Farm Payrolls

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 05/27/23, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports

U.S. employment figures saw an addition of 253K jobs in April, this was higher than the prior 236K and the consensus expectation of 185K. The forecast range went from 125K to 270K, the April headline figure surprised the consensus by more than 2 standard deviations. The unemployment rate fell to 3.4% from the prior 3.5%, this was lower than the consensus forecast of 3.6%. Broadly speaking, the data is yet to support the view that the labour market is cooling down, this means that the jobs mandate is likely to keep the Fed on watch. We have previously noted economists underestimating the U.S. labour market, the headline has topped expectations for about a year. Our Non Farm Payrolls Dashboard shows the metric surprising market expectations by an average of 93K over the last 12-months, surprises now hold a 103.6K standard deviation over this period of time. Despite the disconnect in forecasts and actual data, the market is set to digest another figure and compare it to the median survey of 195K. The forecast range goes from 100K to 252K, the distribution of projections is skewed to the upside.