**As seen in Risk In The Week report 03/31/23, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports
The U.S. labour report showed the economy adding 311K jobs in February, this was slower than the prior 517K but above the median survey of 225K, the January figure got a marginal downward revision. The unemployment rate ticked above the consensus at 3.6% from the prior 3.4%. Average hourly earnings printed at 4.6% Y/y, this was slower than the median expectation of 4.7% but marked a rebound from the prior 4.4%. Some analysts had called the January upside surprise as a “better than expected weather” event, however, the leisure and hospitality sector continued to add jobs above 100K in February, the service-providing figure grew by 245K jobs vs the prior 335K. For March, the forecast range goes from 150K to 300K, we have noted in previous reports economists setting their U.S. headline jobs forecasts too low. We saw the jobs figure beat the consensus 11/12 months in 2022, and 3/3 so far this year. Analysts at Société Générale stand below consensus at 215K, TD Securities pencils the March report at 270K. The desk at CIBC warns that AHE at 0.3% and the headline at a pace of 2220K is not what the Fed would like to see to get prices back to target, they expect the FOMC to hike rates by 25bps in May.
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