🇺🇸Cable FX Macro Weekly Note: June Non Farm Payrolls

**As seen in Risk In The Week 07/01/2022, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports

U.S. headline employment saw the economy adding 390K jobs during May, this was above the consensus of 318K but slower than the prior 428K, the May figure also came at a lower pace than the three-month average gains in employment. Manufacturing payrolls increased by 18K, this was the lowest since April 2021. Construction added 41K jobs, lower wage services increased by 175K jobs, while government added the most jobs since May 2021 at 57K. More than two thirds of the gains were contributed by leisure and hospitality, it added 84K jobs, leading the monthly rise but easing from its three-month average. For the June figure, estimates range from 180K to 400K. Analysts at CIBC stand below consensus and expect job additions at 200K and avg. hourly earnings to increase by 0.3% M/M. CIBC notes interest rate sensitive sectors construction and real estate to slow hiring, this is combined by inflation eroding purchasing power and hitting domestic demand. The desk sees the Fed holding its tightening path and hiking rates by another 75bps in July, however, they expect them to ease the brakes as the cooling in activity extends into the Fall months.