**As seen in Risk In The Week report 04/14/24, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports
China's fourth-quarter output expanded by 5.2% Y/y and 1.0% Q/q, the readings were below the consensus forecast but were faster than the prior quarter. The real estate sector contracted by 2.7% Y/y, matching the prior quarter's decline and recording the third consecutive year-over-year negative print. Economic growth continues to disappoint and some economists have pointed to further stimulus from Chinese authorities. The most recent Bloomberg survey shows economists forecasting 2024-2025 output growth at 4.6% and 4.4%, respectively. China's median survey growth forecast is still below the authorities' target of 5.0%.
The desk at J.P. Morgan recently revised 1Q GDP to the upside noting stronger-than-expected activity during January and February, they now pencil growth printing at 6.6% Q/q in 1Q vs their prior call of 5.5%. Their projections will leave first-quarter growth at 4.6% in yearly terms. J.P. Morgan noted the uptick in Jan-Feb industrial output did more than offset the decline recorded in December, they penciled the metric rising 6.0% Y/y in March. For full-year growth, J.P. Morgan sees the reading at 5.2% vs their prior call of 4.9%, above the consensus median.
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