🇦🇺Cable FX Macro Weekly Note: Australia Retail Sales

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 03/24/23, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports

Australia January retail sales rose by 1.9% M/m vs the consensus median of 1.5%, this was a rebound from the prior -3.9%. January sales printed at the fastest pace since November 2021, the rise was supported by department stores and apparel at 8.8% and 6.5%, respectively. These two categories had seen sharp declines in December, department stores sales fell by 14.3% M/m, the worst month since December 2021. Household goods sales increased by 1.1% M/m, food sales stayed unchanged at 0.3%. The February range of forecasts is skewed to the downside, the low stands at -1.2% and the high is pencilled at 0.8%. The desk at Westpac says that while last month sales jumped, the underlying trend is still lower. They noted that the RBA’s tightening cycle seems to be pressuring demand alongside with a rise in cost of living. Analysts highlighted the Westpac Card Tracker showing a negative 3-month rolling rate of Australia retail sales in February, down from the prior +0.1%. Finally, Westpac warned on the rise of retail prices, this suggests further and more pronounces declines in sales volumes, the desk expects the February figure to show a 0.5% M/m rise, ANZ sees a rise of 0.4%, NAB forecasts retail sales to come flat.