**As seen in Risk In The Week report 04/20/24, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports
Australia consumer prices rose 4.1% Y/y in Q4, this was a significant slowdown from the prior 5.4% and a miss for the consensus forecast of 4.3%. Quarterly, headline prices eased to 0.6% from 1.2%, trimmed mean CPI slowed to the lowest since 3Q 2021 at 0.8%. Goods prices posted signs of disinflation progress as the metric came in at 0.4% vs the prior 1.2%, while services inflation remains sticky at 1.0%. A relief might be taken from the services ex-volatile items at 1.1% vs the prior 1.3%.
For this quarter, the desk at NAB flagged risks to the RBA's forecast of 0.8% Q/q, they see the print coming at 0.9%. NAB noted two reasons for the 1Q print to come faster than the prior: 1)the headline will be dragged by lagged effects on the increase in rent assistance 2)the prior goods price drop is unlikely to repeat in 1Q. NAB said that the data is likely to confirm a gradual progress in inflation but will keep the RBA on the sidelines until later in the year.
