🇦🇺❗️Cable FX Macro Weekly Note: Australia June Labour Report

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 07/14/23, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports

Australia net labour change came in at 75.9K in May, this was a rebound from the prior -4.0K and a beat to the consensus of 17.5K, the highest estimate in the forecast range was 45.0K. Employment growth was the highest pace since June 2022 and lifted the total Australian labour force to a fresh record high of 14.5M. The unemployment rate ticked lower to 3.6% from 3.7% vs the expected 3.7%, female unemployment ticked up to 3.5% from the prior record low of 3.3%. We remind you that the RBA currently expects the jobless rate to rise to 4.0% by end of 2023 and to 4.5% by end of next year. Economists see a relatively stronger labour market than the RBA, the consensus pencils a 3.8% jobless rate by end of the year and see the wage price index rising faster into next year. Analysts at NAB said they have recently observed extreme volatility in the labour force survey, they stand a below consensus at 10.0K for June’s net labour change and see the jobless rate unchanged at 3.6%. Looking ahead, NAB flagged mixed signals in the labour market, job vacancies to unemployed persons stand above its long-term average while consumer surveys have lifted unemployment expectations.