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🇦🇺❗️Cable FX Macro Weekly Note: Australia CPI & Retail Sales

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 09/22/23, subscribe at

Retail sales rebounded in July as the metric printed at 0.5% M/m from a prior -0.8%, this was above the consensus of 0.3%. The household goods component was the only sector to see declines at 0.2%, department store sales rose the most since January at 3.6%. Food sales came in flat on the month, the rate was the slowest since April. More recently, we saw consumer sentiment figures dipping as monetary conditions have tightened. A Bloomberg article noted Australian household savings running down to pre-pandemic levels. Economists at Westpac flagged a “time to buy a major household item” component in their most recent household survey, they said it is currently at levels well below the recession of the early 1990s. We will also see inflation figures on the week, the July monthly CPI indicator eased to 4.9% Y/y from the prior 5.4%, this came to miss expectations of 5.2%. Progress in prices supported expectations of a pause in RBA tightening, however, the minutes of the most recent meeting stated that the central bank considered lifting rates further. This week’s data will help assess whether the RBA has further to deliver or not as other developed central banks have paused policy tightening. Also, August inflation data may be overlooked as petrol prices spiked in September, this is likely to keep upside pressure on headline inflation and consumer sentiment.



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