**As seen in Risk In The Week report 06/03/24, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports
The Australian economy expanded by 0.2% Q/Q in 4Q 2024, the prior quarter was revised up to 0.3%, this reading matched the consensus forecast. Contributions from exports continued to be negative, while imports added 0.7pp on the quarter. Domestic demand eased while contributions from consumption stayed unchanged. Data compiled by Bloomberg show economists expecting growth to accelerate over the next couple of quarters, the consensus median pencils output rising at 0.4% Q/q in 3Q.
The desk at Westpac has recently revised their 1Q projection to the downside, they flagged data pointing to risk of a drag from the external sector being larger than expected. Westpac is now expecting the quarter to be flat vs their prior call of a 0.3%, this would translate into a 1.0% Y/y print and will make the lowest reading since 1991 (ex-Covid). Westpac analysts noted non-mining sales volumes dropping 0.3% Y/y, this is the first annual contraction since the December quarter of 2020.
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