💵🔺Buy & Hold Outperforms Dollar Strategies YTD: Cable FX Macro

• Buying the dollar and holding is the best strategy so far this year, our measure of the USD vs the G10 is tracking gains of 5.5% following this rule. This also means holding steady for 92 trading sessions, which could prove challenging for a variety of directional views

• The second-best dollar strategy is trading rules based on the simple moving average, with a 50% success rate, it tracks gains of 2.3% in 2024. Simple MA rules have seen an average duration of 7 sessions per trade YTD

• A popular technical strategy that is losing money this year is the RSI, rules here point to buying/selling in overbought/oversold levels. This makes sens as dollar strength has been steady in 2024. The MA oscillator has been the heaviest trading and losing strategy YTD, currently down 4.5%
  

• Given where we are in the calendar, we would flag 10+ trades as heavy trading strategies. Data compiled by Bloomberg shows 6 out of 22 strategies meeting this threshold, 2/6 heavy trading strategies are losers