⚠️August 2024 Vol Spike Surpassed Covid: Cable FX Macro

• This post is looking at the weekly <.VIX> range, I found it interesting as the 45.5 point range came to top the Covid crisis of March 2020. This is 30x the average weekly move seen over the last year in which low vol has been predominant

• A quick pullback from 65.7 to 23.4 in the volatility benchmark is the main difference from the March 2020 spike, when the <.VIX> stayed above average for some time

• Last week's volatility two-way trip is more similar to the February 2018 Volmagedon. If the past is used as guide, the VIX failed to break below its recent lows preceding the 2018 spike, it stayed up until the Covid crisis

• Market participants may stay scarred by the August 2024 event. However, we could see a suppression in vol ahead as central banks ease policy