The chart below compares the actual U.S. headline CPI to the high-inflation cycle of the 1970s. In recent months, we have seen prices coming above economists' expectations. Forecasts can live through periods of mismatch but the fact that inflation is re-accelerating brings this chart into play
If we were to live a second round of inflation similar to the one in the 1970s, we could see prices accelerating into 2026. This would send U.S. inflation to tick into double digits
Again, following the prior episode of high inflation, prices wouldn't settle down until 2H 2027. If this is to materialize, then forget about "higher for longer", we would see a fresh round of central bank tightening, something risk assets have not priced in
コメント