We suspect that core inflation could surprise positively in May, when the April reading is due. The same applies for near-term US employment growth, which might be helpful for the dollar in May.
The small business survey NFIB has reported two months in a row with record-high difficulties to fill jobs (on data since 1973)
When we summon our inner doom-mongers (Steno dons that hat more often than Enlund), then we could even envisage >6% inflation by late summer. Our trend model that, among other variables, includes the USD, NFIB, ISM prices and food prices hint of >7% this summer.
It looks too bad to be true, but if everything is in a bottle-neck at the same time, then price pressures can turn fairly violent. We know how e.g. lumber, oil and food prices have risen markedly, and there is anecdotal evidence of substantial bottle-necks ín other sectors as well.
Used cars have e.g. exploded in price as a result of the ongoing semi-conductor scarcity, which has halted production of new cars on several factories around the globe. This is obviously a textbook bottleneck, but such may stick around for much longer than hoped for, and if there are enough bottlenecks occurring at the same time, it may be something that at least the markets will have a hard time neglecting.
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