📝 UBS Economics On FOMC Minutes

Heading into FOMC Minutes, UBS Economics is looking for three things:

1. Broad consensus on the balance sheet runoff, which should start soon.

2. Consensus within the FOMC on using caps to regulate the pace of shrinking the balance sheet. UBS Economics thinks the Fed will settle at a pace below $1tln per year.

3. A discussion of 50bp hikes. UBS Economics calls for a 50bp hike in May.