🎈💥Surprise!: October Non Farm Payrolls

• *Surprise = Actual - Consensus Forecast

• Bloomberg consensus sees U.S. October headline employment coming at 450K. Forecast range from 250K to 750K jobs

• The previous two months have seen the headline figure missing by nearly one standard deviation and above. September actual came at 194K vs. 500K survey median, that's a miss of 306K or 0.90 standard deviation vs the 5-year history of surprises

• We have not seen three consecutive Non Farm Payrolls misses since the period of August to October 2017. And even back then, these data surprises were not even half a standard deviation

• Lastly, we would like to leave our upper and lower bound for the survey median:

  • 450K + 1std Dev = 791K

  • 450K - 1std Dev = 109K