FX traders have not found reasons to bet on the Swiss franc falling against the euro since the Swiss National Bank revised its foreign exchange intervention strategy in June. EUR/CHF gains have been subdued after the SNB said it was willing to intervene in the case of excessive franc strength or weakness. As long as EUR/CHF appreciation remains small, the risk profile of short positions that expect the currency pair to fall is extremely attractive. The more FX traders realize this, the greater the downward pressure on EUR/CHF is likely to become.
- Commerzbank FX Strategy
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