Despite the uncertainty, most things point to a change of government. A lead of 175 seats to 174 is not much, but the historical pattern is that the foreign vote slightly favours the right-wing. Against this background, it is probably more likely that the margin increases by a few seats rather than the majority shifting again. However, we won't have an actual result until Wednesday, at the earliest.
The market reactions to the election result are expected to be small. There are no dramatic differences between the economic policies of the two blocs that will change the playing field in a more fundamental way. Swedish government finances are strong, the government debt is small and international investors do not tend to pay much attention to Swedish domestic policy. Nor is the election result likely to affect the Riksbank's interest rate policy. The Riksbank's focus is on bringing down excessive inflation through interest rate increases and quantitative tightening, and neither its mandate nor its tools will change in the event of a change of government.
- SEB
Comentários