We have maintained a high-conviction underweight across
almost all LatAm currencies with the eye on US CPI. Traders may need to cut bullish bets on LatAm FX in MXN and BRL, where positioning is seen heavier. The Brazilian real may be pressured by domestic political risks and the end of the central bank's tightening campaing. We think LULA is more negative for markets than what most have perceived due to his views on the fiscal framework. Another factor set to pressure the real is its shrinking rate differential to the USD. See higher global yields weakening LatAm FX.
- Crédit Agricole Strategy
Kommentare