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⛔️ Market Impact: U.S. Inflation

Writer's picture: Rosbel DuránRosbel Durán

  • Quick look at past performance during U.S. CPI releases for a short watch list. Average response captures % performance 30 minutes after data release for the last year

  • In equities, we see a negative response from Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures, the latter one standard deviation lower bound is 1.1%. U.S. equity futs have closed lower 4 out of the last 7 inflation releases

  • In the dollar, reaction is choppy after the release. The USD index has closed down 7 out of the last 12 releases

  • Over the last year, U.S. headline inflation Y/Y rate has missed estimates one time, came in line 3 events, surprised to the upside on 8 releases







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