📝 Jobless Claims Are Growing Much Faster Than In Prior Recessions: RBC

Initial U.S. jobless claims tend to be a reliable leading indicator signaling a U.S. recession is imminent. During the past 6 U.S. recessions that pre-dated the pandemic, once U.S. jobless claims increased by ~30% on average before a recession began. Initial U.S. jobless claims appear to have reached their lowest point in April 2022 and by June 18th, had already grown by over 30%. While jobless claims are still quite low in level terms, to date they are up nearly 50% from the March through. Jobless claims are growing at a much faster rate than in prior recessions

(excluding 2020).