the ECB shifting the inflation target from ‘below, but close to 2%’ to ‘2%’ with a commitment to symmetry, the new strategy can be interpreted as either a formalisation of what it has been doing over the last few years anyway or a step towards more dovishness, as 2% implies a more resolute effort
This means the distribution of probabilities is skewed to lower EUR/USD tomorrow. No change in the ECB bias is unlikely to be enough to send the euro higher as the ECB will remain cautious, and the Fed is much closer to starting the monetary policy normalisation process (both on the QE side and the interest rate side). At the same time, any ECB shift towards the dovish interpretation of the strategic review would underscore the recent downward EUR/USD trend.
While not a discussion for this week, the ECB dovish bias would suggest that the total reduction of the monthly purchases in 2022 will be less than previously expected. This would further underscore the diverging trend between the ECB and the Federal Reserve and put a lid on any EUR/USD upside while exposing EUR/USD on the downside next year when the Fed should be moving closer to the interest rate hikes.
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