📆 ICYMI

UK unemployment rate ticked lower to 4.9% in February from a previous 5.0%. The release came better than expected as the consensus had been expecting a higher rate of 5.1%. ING sees the release as a faster than expected recovery, however, the bank expects the unemployment rate to rise to 6-6.5% as the furlough scheme comes to an end.

Headline inflation rate in Canada came at 2.2% in March Y/Y, this was slightly below the 2.3% consensus but above the previous 1.1%. The core figure printed at 0.5%, which was unchanged from previous and below the consensus of 0.6%. Canadian bank RBC sees Q2 Y/Y headline inflation rate at 2.9% and core inflation rate at 1.4%.

UK March inflation ticked higher to 0.7% Y/Y from previous 0.4%. The core metric came in line with consensus at 1.1%, higher than the previous 0.9%. Dutch bank ING, notes that due to base effects in energy components and a rise in household energy cap, the CPI figure is likely to double by next month. ING says the headline is likely to push towards 2% later this year.

U.S. new home sales expanded at a monthly rate of 20.7% in March, this recorded a 1.02 million sales, up from the previous 0.886 million. Existing home sales dropped by 3.7% in March, this was higher than expected by consensus. Wells Fargo bank noted that existing home prices did rise to record levels, however, they note that talks of a bubble in the housing market are still premature.

Last week, the ECB monetary policy took place and the bank left its policy tools unchanged, as expected. Swiss bank UBS, noted that towards the end of the ECB's press conference, European rates started to rally and the euro weakened a bit. It's hard to see a reason for that, unless ECB President Lagarde's reference to not discussing phasing out PEPP came as a disappointment to those who had expected an announcement today. It's not surprising at all the governing council members didn't (formally) discuss phasing out PEPP (though they surely did over dinner). That will be for the June 10 meeting where it seems likely the members will scale back PEPP even if they won't formally call it tapering.