⚠️FX Market Impact: Non Farm Payrolls, USD/JPY

• Non Farm Payrolls & USD/JPY, a quick glance at the last five events, we notice a mixed cross performance by session close. Also, we spot dollar gains vs the yen on Non Farm Payrolls releases where the headline beats consensus, like the March and February events, 269K and 197K, respectively. However, on June's figure, the headline actual topped consensus by 150K, which seems not to have surprised markets that much, dollar gave ground on the day

• Intraday metrics on these past five events show that on average, the dollar weakens 150 minutes post release. On average, USD/JPY gives -0.15% the first 30 minutes after the data is published. Losses are not paired, actually, weakness dances in crescendo tune. On average, the dollar gives -0.21% 150 minutes after the data

• Some more numbers to keep in mind (You better have had coffee at this point GMT+1 and GMT-0, go get coffee then come back to read this). Lower bound shows a -0.44% and -0.55%, 30 and 150 minutes after the data, respectively. The upper bound sees a 0.15% and 0.14%, 30 and 150 minutes after the data, respectively. In other words, USD/JPY intraday performance is heavily skewed to the downside on Non Farm Payrolls releases

Dollar yen spot trades at 109.85 as of time of writing.

Rosbel Durán