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🏦📊 Focus On Dots Median to Match Implied Rates Of 4% By Year-End: Cable FX Macro

  • Rates are expected to rise to 4.0% by end of year, the market implies a peak of 4.5% by H1 2023

  • We're leaving here the Fed June's projections for the dot plot and economic forecasts

  • We will be looking for the Fed's dot plot median to match expectations for this year and beyond. If expectations are matched/missed, this will set the price action for the dollar before we hear from Fed Chair Powell

  • While it is likely to get upward revisions for Core PCE and the headline metric, downward revisions to growth will move the odds on the likelihood that we get or not a soft landing

  • In June, the Fed revised growth lower to 1.7% in 2022, and 1.7% in 2023. The Bloomberg consensus projection sees GDP expanding at 1.6% in 2022 and 0.9% next year



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