**As seen in Risk In The Week report 06/03/2022, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports
April's consumer prices accelerated to 8.3% Y/Y, this was higher than the market consensus forecast of 8.1% but slower than the previous 8.5%. The core metric came at 6.2% Y/Y, above the median survey of 6.0% and slower than the prior 6.5%. On a monthly basis, the broad index expanded by 0.3%, down from the previous 0.8%, this was the softest monthly print in 8-months. The energy basket eased to -2.7% M/M, transportation ticked higher to 3.1%, gasoline fell by 6.1% (vs a prior +18.3%), shelter came unchanged at 0.5%, food ticked down to 0.9%. As a reminder, crude oil has seen gains over every single months of the last 6, the May release may hold risks to the upside as oil futures increased by 9.5% on the month, the most since January. This has filtered into the pump, the average U.S. gasoline price increased by 9.2% in May to tick above $5.00/ gallon. The range of CPI forecast goes from 8.0% to 8.5% for the headline, while estimates for the core go from 5.0% to 6.1% Y/Y. Focus will lie on real average hourly and weekly earnings. Last week we heard from several FOMC voting members supporting 50bps hikes over the next couple of meetings, more recently, Fed’s Master said she would back a 50bps in Sept. if inflation doesn’t cool down.
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