🇬🇧Cable FX Macro Weekly Note: U.K. GDP Growth Rate

**As seen in Risk In The Week report 11/04/22, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports

U.K. second quarter growth expanded by 4.4% Y/y, this was faster than the prior and the consensus estimate of 2.9%, British economic output continues to surpass expectations. The Q/q reading came in at 0.2%, higher than the preliminary figure of -0.1%. Exports increased by 3.6% on the quarter, business investment rose by 3.7%, private consumption saw a 0.1% rise. The second quarter saw government spending rebounding from a contraction of 2.9% Q/q to a rise of 1.5%. Q3 growth is set to ease as the median expectation sees a decline on the quarter, despite this, high-frequency data continues to be supportive as jobs postings remain stable, shipments continue to grow and U.K. flights remain posting weekly rises. Analysts at Natwest warn that a recession is becoming more apparent in the U.K. after quarterly output dropped by 0.3% in August as industrial production fell and consumers suffered a real income squeeze. Overall, Natwest says we should see further evidence of a slowdown this week due to high inflation and as monetary policy effects partially put pressure on the real economy.