*As seen in Risk In The Week report 07/08/2022, subscribe at cablefxm.co.uk/reports
The RBNZ lifted the Official Cash Rate by 50bps to 2.0%, as expected. The central bank adjusted its policy rate path, with the June 2023 OCR now seen at 3.88%, up from previous 1.89%. On this, the bank said that rates could return to a lower more neutral level once aggregate supply and demand are more in balance. They added that having moved earlier at a faster pace in interest rates lessened the probability of sustained high inflation. RBNZ noted risks as global economic uncertainty and high prices lower domestic consumer confidence. The central bank now sees June 2023 inflation at 3.5%, an upward revision from the previous forecast of 2.6%. As of May, the RBNZ has tightened a cumulative 175bps, it was the second developed central bank to react to prices. More recently, we have seen the economy contracting in Q1, while consumer confidence fell to a record low. The team at Capital Economics has already pencilled 75bps of rate cuts by the central bank next year. Analysts at BNZ say rates are already near neutral and point to a 25bps move as a more appropriate response, however, they still expect the central bank to move by 50bps next week. Economists at ANZ bank highlight the most recent Business Outlook survey showing cost and inflation indicators at still high levels, they say that the RBNZ can’t slow down yet.
コメント